Advance Estimates of National Income, 2010-11

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the advance estimates of national income at constant (2004-05) and current prices, for the financial year 2010-11.

2. These advance estimates are based on anticipated level of agricultural and industrial production, analysis of budget estimates of government expenditure and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking and insurance, available so far. The advance estimates at current prices are derived by estimating the implicit price deflators (IPDs) at sectoral level from the relevant price indices. The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:

I ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2010-11

Estimates at Constant (2004-05) Prices

Gross Domestic Product

3. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in the year 2010-11 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 48,79,232 crore, as against the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2009-10 of Rs. 44,93,743 crore, released on 31^st January 2011. The growth in GDP during 2010-11 is estimated at 8.6 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 8.0 per cent in 2009-10.

4. The growth rate of 8.6 per cent in GDP during 2010-11 has been due to the growth rates of over 8 per cent in the sectors of ‘manufacturing’, ‘construction’, 'trade, hotels, transport and communication', 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services'. Agriculture sector registered a growth rate of 5.4 percent.

Agriculture

5. The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector is likely to show a growth of 5.4 per cent in its GDP during 2010-11, as against the previous year’s growth rate of 0.4 per cent. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in 2010-11, production of foodgrains and oilseeds is expected to grow by 6.5 per cent and 11.9 per cent, respectively, as compared to the previous agriculture year. The production of cotton and sugarcane is also expected to rise by 41.2 per cent and 15.2 per cent, respectively, in 2010-11. Among the horticultural crops, production of fruits and vegetables is expected to increase by 4.1 per cent and 3.8 per cent, respectively, during the year 2010-11.

Industry

6. The growth in GDP for mining and quarrying and manufacturing sectors during 2010-11 is expected to be 6.2 and 8.8 percent respectively over previous year. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining and manufacturing registered growth rates of 8.0 per cent and 10.0 per cent during April-November, 2010. The estimated growth rate for construction sector is 8.0 percent in 2010-11. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement production and steel consumption have registered growth rates of 4.4 per cent and 8.8 per cent, respectively during April-December, 2010.

Services

7. The estimated growth in GDP for the trade, hotels, transport and communication sectors during 2010-11 is placed at 11.0 per cent, mainly on account of growth during April-November, 2010-11 of 14.9 per cent in passengers handled in civil aviation , 21.3 per cent in air cargo handled and 40.9 per cent in stock of telephone connections. The sales of commercial vehicles witnessed an increase of 34.1 per cent per cent in April-December, 2010. The sector, 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services', is expected to show a growth rate of 10.6 per cent during 2010-11, on account of 14.0 per cent growth in aggregate deposits and 22.6 per cent growth in bank credit during April- November 2010 (against the respective growth rates of 18.6 per cent and 10.1 per cent in the corresponding period of previous year). The growth rate of 'community, social and personal services' during 2010-11 is estimated to be 5.7 per cent.

National Income

8. The net national income (NNI) at factor cost, also known as national income, at 2004-05 prices is likely to be Rs. 42,69,994 crore during 2010-11, as against the previous year's Quick Estimate of Rs. 39,46,540 crore. In terms of growth rates, the national income is expected to rise by 8.2 per cent during 2010-11 in comparison to the growth rate of 7.5 per cent in 2009-10.

Per Capita Income

9. The per capita income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2010-11 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 36,003 as compared to the Quick Estimate for the year 2009-10 of Rs. 33,731. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 6.7 per cent during 2010-11, as against the previous year's estimate of 6.1 per cent.

Estimates at Current Prices

Gross Domestic Product

10. GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2010-11 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 72,56,571 crore, showing a growth rate of 18.3 per cent over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2009-10 of Rs. 61,33,230 crore.

National Income

11. The NNI at factor cost at current prices is anticipated to be Rs. 64,66,860 crore during 2010-11, as compared to Rs. 54,39,557 crore during 2009-10, showing a rise of 18.9 per cent.

Per Capita Income

12. The per capita income at current prices during 2010-11 is estimated to be Rs. 54,527 as compared to Rs. 46,492 during 2009-10, showing a rise of 17.3 per cent.

II ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP, 2010-11

13. Alongwith the Advance Estimates of GDP by economic activity, the CSO is also releasing the Advance Estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2004-05) prices. These estimates have been compiled using the data on indicators available from the same sources as those used for compiling GDP estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and monthly accounts of central government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

14. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 44,93,487 crore in 2010-11 as against Rs. 37,82,013 crore in 2009-10. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 30,79,898 crore in 2010-11 as against Rs. 28,46,410 crore in 2009-10. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2010-11 are estimated at 57.0 per cent and 57.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.7 per cent and 58.5 per cent, respectively in 2009-10.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

15. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 8,90,978 crore in 2010-11 as against Rs. 7,85,443 crore in 2009-10. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 5,79,479 crore in 2010-11 as against Rs. 5,64,835 crore in 2009-10. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2010-11 are estimated at 11.3 per cent and 10.8 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 12.0 per cent and 11.6 per cent, respectively in 2009-10.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

16. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 23,07,376 crore in 2010-11 as against Rs. 20,16,186 crore in 2009-10. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 16,89,460 crore in 2010-11 as against Rs.15,59,126 crore in 2009-10. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2010-11 are estimated at 29.3 per cent and 31.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.8 per cent and 32.0 per cent, respectively in 2009-10. The rates of Change in Stocks and Valuables at current prices during 2010-11 are estimated at 3.2 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively.

17. Estimates of gross/net national product, gross/net domestic product and per capita income, alongwith GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the years 2008-09 and 2009-10 and 2010-11, at constant (2004-05) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 6.

STATEMENT 1: Advance Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2010-11

(At 2004-05 prices)

Item	2008-09	2009-10 (QE)	2010-11 (AE)
A. ESTIMATES AT AGGREGATE LEVEL
1. NATIONAL PRODUCT (Rs. Crore)
1.1 Gross National Income (GNI) at factor cost	41,37,125	44,64,854 (7.9)	48,44,971 (8.5)
1.2 Net National Income (NNI) at factor cost	36,69,890	39,46,540 (7.5)	42,69,994 (8.2)
2. DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Rs. Crore)
2.1 Gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost 2.2 Gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices	41,62,509 44,62,967	44,93,743 (8.0) 48,69,317 (9.1)	48,79,232 (8.6) 53,42,571 (9.7)
2.3 Net domestic product (NDP) at factor cost	36,95,274	39,75,429 (7.6 )	43,04,255 (8.3)
B. ESTIMATES AT PER CAPITA LEVEL
Population (million)	1,154	1,170	1,186
Per capita NNI at factor cost (Rs.)	31,801	33,731 (6.1)	36,003 (6.7)
Per capita GDP at factor cost (Rs.)	36,070	38,408	41,140

Note: The figures in parenthesis show the percentage change over previous year

QE: Quick Estimate; AE: Advance Estimate

STATEMENT 2: Advance Estimates of National Income for the year 2010-11

(At current prices)

Item	2008-09	2009-10 (QE)	2010-11 (AE)
A. ESTIMATES AT AGGREGATE LEVEL
1. NATIONAL PRODUCT (Rs. Crore)
1.1 Gross National Income (GNI) at factor cost	52,49,163	60,95,230 (16.1)	72,04,492 (18.2)
1.2 Net National Income (NNI) at factor cost	46,85,873	54,39,557 (16.1)	64,66,860 (18.9)
2. DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Rs. Crore)
2.1 Gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost 2.2 Gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices	52,82,086 55,82,623	61,33,230 (16.1) 65,50,271 (17.3)	72,56,571 (18.3) 78,77,947 (20.3)
2.3 Net domestic product (NDP) at factor cost	47,18,796	54,77,557 (16.1)	65,18,939 (19.0)
2.4 Gross National Disposable Income	57,52,909	67,59,384	80,54,010
B. ESTIMATES AT PER CAPITA LEVEL
Population (million)	1,154	1,170	1,186
Per capita NNI at factor cost (Rs.)	40,605	46,492 (14.5)	54,527 (17.3)
Per capita GDP at factor cost (Rs.)	45,772	52,421	61,185

Note: The figures in parenthesis show the percentage change over previous year

QE: Quick Estimate; AE: Advance Estimate

STATEMENT 3: Advance Estimates of GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity (at constant 2004-05 prices)
				Rs.Crore
Industry	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	Percentage change over previous year
		(QE)	(AE)	2009-10	2010-11
1. agriculture, forestry & fishing	654,118	656,975	692,499	0.4	5.4
2. mining & quarrying	97,244	103,999	110,482	6.9	6.2
3. manufacturing	655,775	713,428	776,337	8.8	8.8
4. electricity, gas & water supply	83,344	88,654	93,133	6.4	5.1
5. construction	332,557	355,918	384,282	7.0	8.0
6. trade, hotels, transport and	1,087,575	1,193,282	1,324,049	9.7	11.0
communication
7. financing, insurance, real estate	706,712	771,763	853,795	9.2	10.6
& business services
8. community, social & personal	545,184	609,724	644,656	11.8	5.7
services
9. GDP at factor cost	4,162,509	4,493,743	4,879,232	8.0	8.6
QE: Quick Estimate; AE: Advance Estimate
STATEMENT 4: Advance Estimates of GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity (at current prices)
				Rs.Crore
Industry	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	Percentage change over previous year
		(QE)	(AE)	2009-10	2010-11
1. agriculture, forestry & fishing	928,943	1,089,297	1,341,503	17.3	23.2
2. mining & quarrying	138,649	154,269	182,278	11.3	18.2
3. manufacturing	816,217	905,224	1,036,155	10.9	14.5
4. electricity, gas & water supply	84,164	92,671	100,635	10.1	8.6
5. construction	451,414	501,706	587,048	11.1	17.0
6. trade, hotels, transport and	1,308,640	1,477,456	1,724,915	12.9	16.7
communication
7. financing, insurance, real estate	849,193	1,027,158	1,298,963	21.0	26.5
& business services
8. community, social & personal	704,866	885,449	985,074	25.6	11.3
services
9. GDP at factor cost	5,282,086	6,133,230	7,256,571	16.1	18.3
QE: Quick Estimate; AE: Advance Estimate

STATEMENT 5: EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN 2010-11 (at 2004-05 prices)
Industry	(Rs. in crore)			RATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES (%)
	Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product
	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2009-10	2010-11
		(QE)	(AE)
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)	2,652,273	2,846,410	3,079,898	58.5	57.6
2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure	485,212	564,835	579,479	11.6	10.8
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)	1,452,474	1,559,126	1,689,460	32.0	31.6
4. Change in Stocks	90,168	172,083	184,328	3.5	3.5
5. Valuables	60,062	92,626	110,727	1.9	2.1
6. Exports	1,040,765	983,508	1,101,148	20.2	20.6
7. Less Imports	1,359,886	1,335,211	1,419,365	27.4	26.6
8. Discrepancies	41,899	-14,060	16,896	-0.3	0.3
GDP at market prices	4,462,967	4,869,317	5,342,571	100.0	100.0
QE: Quick Estimate; AE: Advance Estimate
STATEMENT 6: EXPENDITURES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES IN 2010-11 (at current prices)
Industry	(Rs. in crore)			RATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES (%)
	Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product
	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2009-10	2010-11
		(QE)	(AE)
1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)	3,257,800	3,782,013	4,493,487	57.7	57.0
2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure	616,430	785,443	890,978	12.0	11.3
3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)	1,788,803	2,016,186	2,307,376	30.8	29.3
4. Change in Stocks	112,519	214,619	255,684	3.3	3.2
5. Valuables	72,213	113,374	147,685	1.7	1.9
6. Exports	1,328,765	1,298,371	1,610,571	19.8	20.4
7. Less Imports	1,614,040	1,639,872	1,900,118	25.0	24.1
8. Discrepancies	20,133	-19,863	72,285	-0.3	0.9
GDP at market prices	5,582,623	6,550,271	7,877,947	100.0	100.0
QE: Quick Estimate; AE: Advance Estimate